The recent history of the Middle East demonstrates that every major military escalation in the region is rarely confined to the battlefield; it produces political, economic, and humanitarian consequences that reverberate across neighboring states. Iran is one of the region’s pivotal countries due to its geopolitical position, population size, and energy resources. For this reason, a potential large-scale U.S. military intervention in Iran would not only affect Iran, but would also directly impact neighboring countries.
In this context, Türkiye’s position is of particular importance. Türkiye is a direct neighbor of Iran, a strategic gateway to Europe, a NATO member, and a country that has hosted millions of refugees over the last three decades. Any instability or war in Iran could generate the most acute effects in Türkiye in areas such as migration movements, border security, energy supply, social cohesion, and broader security dynamics.
This paper aims to provide a preventive analysis and strategic framework for human rights organizations, humanitarian aid agencies, international donors, and policymakers in anticipation of a potential crisis scenario.
